Screening The Releases - May 3rd
Posted: May 2nd, 2024, 4:16 pm
Last Week
Closing off a rough April, Challengers debuted in first to an okay 15 m. While this isn't a great result in comparison to its budget, it had some limitations as to audience pull from the beginning, especially considering that it revolves around tennis, which has never led to much success at the box office. WOM is a bit difficult to gauge at this point, but with a lack of competition for the target audience until Back To Black, it should be able to hold well enough to get to 50 m at least. In second was another wide opener, Unsung Hero, which grossed an okay, although very front-loaded, 7 m. Due to the front-loading and unpredictable patterns of religious films, legs could go either way. That being said, it should reach 20 m at least. In third is Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, which has stabilized a bit following a few harsh drops. It dropped just 25 percent this weekend to gross 7 m, for a total of almost 182 m so far. Unless it is hit super hard by the new releases over the next few weeks, it should be able to reach 200 m in total. In fourth is Civil War, which also had a decent hold, dropping 38 percent to gross 7 m, for a total of 56 m so far. While it may not turn a huge profit, it will be Alex Garland's highest grossing film as director, and is A24's second highest grosser. It should finish with 65-70 m. In fifth, Abigail grossed about 5 m, dropping 49 percent from its opening to gross almost 19 m so far. With positive WOM and no wide-release competition until The Strangers, it should be able to close with about 30-35 m. Outside the Top 5, Boy Kills World flopped with about 1.5 m.
On the PTA side of things, The Feeling... grossed 7 k in 2 theaters. In second, Challengers grossed 4 k in almost 3,500 theaters. In third, Unsung Hero grossed about 2.5 k in around 2,800 theaters. Godzilla X Kong followed in fourth with about 2 k in around 3,300 theaters. In fifth, Civil War grossed almost 2 k in about 3,500 theaters.
This Week
Note - The re-release of The Phantom Menace is not included in the game, but will very likely place in both the Top 5 and PTA parts of the game.
The Fall Guy
Hype around this has seemed to die out significantly since its buzzy SXSW premiere. I think there are several things holding it back - movies about movies can be a difficult sell, and the marketing makes it unclear what audience it is aimed at (Is it an action movie? A rom-com? A mystery-thriller-comedy in the vein of previous Ryan Gosling film The Nice Guys?). I also feel like moving it to May was a mistake that hurt the marketing campaign - IMO, it would have done better in April. That being said, there are some things going for it. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are both well-liked, and there has been a drought of wide-appeal movies as of late. If WOM is strong, it could have solid legs, but I'm predicting a under-performance for now.
I expect an OW of 28 m, and a total of 100 m.
It will get you 12-17 Top 5 points, 2-3 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office, but it's not a horrible choice in Ultimate.
Tarot
This will probably do similar business with past horror/thrillers released in early May. I think that the concept could have some appeal to horror fans, even though (IMO) the movie looks pretty bad. That being said, it likely won't review well, and legs should be short with The Strangers coming out soon.
I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 25 m.
It will get you 3-5 PTA points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
I Saw The TV Glow
This is likely to do pretty well in limited release. We're All Going To The World's Fair was acclaimed, and this has seemingly matched the level of acclaim that received. A24 is behind it as well, and the trailer seemed to get a solid amount of buzz when it was released (the trailer being attached to prints of Civil War should help as well). That being said, it likely will not have a lot of mainstream appeal.
I expect an OW PTA of 30 k, and a total of 5 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 7-12 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office, but it's not a bad choice in Ultimate.
Evil Does Not Exist
This should have a solid PTA as well. It is from the director of the Oscar-nominated Drive My Car, and reviews have been similarly strong. That being said, Janus Films has only ever had two films gross over 2 m (one of them being the aforementioned Drive My Car), so long-term prospects are iffy, even though it should start strong.
I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a total under 1 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 4-10 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office, and there may be better options in Ultimate.
Wildcat
This should have an okay opening, but probably won't do much in expansion. Reviews have been poor, but the subject matter, matched with the curiosity factor of Ethan Hawke directing/Maya Hawke starring should lead to a decent PTA.
I expect an OW PTA of 15 k, and a total under 1 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 3-4 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Top 5
The Fall Guy - 28 m
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Re-Release - 10 m
Tarot - 10 m
Challengers - 8 m
Civil War - 5 m
PTA
I Saw The TV Glow - 30 k
Evil Does Not Exist - 20 k
Wildcat - 15 k
The Fall Guy - 7 k
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Re-Release - 4 k
Next Week
Join transformers for a look over Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes, which should start off better than The Fall Guy.
Closing off a rough April, Challengers debuted in first to an okay 15 m. While this isn't a great result in comparison to its budget, it had some limitations as to audience pull from the beginning, especially considering that it revolves around tennis, which has never led to much success at the box office. WOM is a bit difficult to gauge at this point, but with a lack of competition for the target audience until Back To Black, it should be able to hold well enough to get to 50 m at least. In second was another wide opener, Unsung Hero, which grossed an okay, although very front-loaded, 7 m. Due to the front-loading and unpredictable patterns of religious films, legs could go either way. That being said, it should reach 20 m at least. In third is Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, which has stabilized a bit following a few harsh drops. It dropped just 25 percent this weekend to gross 7 m, for a total of almost 182 m so far. Unless it is hit super hard by the new releases over the next few weeks, it should be able to reach 200 m in total. In fourth is Civil War, which also had a decent hold, dropping 38 percent to gross 7 m, for a total of 56 m so far. While it may not turn a huge profit, it will be Alex Garland's highest grossing film as director, and is A24's second highest grosser. It should finish with 65-70 m. In fifth, Abigail grossed about 5 m, dropping 49 percent from its opening to gross almost 19 m so far. With positive WOM and no wide-release competition until The Strangers, it should be able to close with about 30-35 m. Outside the Top 5, Boy Kills World flopped with about 1.5 m.
On the PTA side of things, The Feeling... grossed 7 k in 2 theaters. In second, Challengers grossed 4 k in almost 3,500 theaters. In third, Unsung Hero grossed about 2.5 k in around 2,800 theaters. Godzilla X Kong followed in fourth with about 2 k in around 3,300 theaters. In fifth, Civil War grossed almost 2 k in about 3,500 theaters.
This Week
Note - The re-release of The Phantom Menace is not included in the game, but will very likely place in both the Top 5 and PTA parts of the game.
The Fall Guy
Hype around this has seemed to die out significantly since its buzzy SXSW premiere. I think there are several things holding it back - movies about movies can be a difficult sell, and the marketing makes it unclear what audience it is aimed at (Is it an action movie? A rom-com? A mystery-thriller-comedy in the vein of previous Ryan Gosling film The Nice Guys?). I also feel like moving it to May was a mistake that hurt the marketing campaign - IMO, it would have done better in April. That being said, there are some things going for it. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are both well-liked, and there has been a drought of wide-appeal movies as of late. If WOM is strong, it could have solid legs, but I'm predicting a under-performance for now.
I expect an OW of 28 m, and a total of 100 m.
It will get you 12-17 Top 5 points, 2-3 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office, but it's not a horrible choice in Ultimate.
Tarot
This will probably do similar business with past horror/thrillers released in early May. I think that the concept could have some appeal to horror fans, even though (IMO) the movie looks pretty bad. That being said, it likely won't review well, and legs should be short with The Strangers coming out soon.
I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 25 m.
It will get you 3-5 PTA points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
I Saw The TV Glow
This is likely to do pretty well in limited release. We're All Going To The World's Fair was acclaimed, and this has seemingly matched the level of acclaim that received. A24 is behind it as well, and the trailer seemed to get a solid amount of buzz when it was released (the trailer being attached to prints of Civil War should help as well). That being said, it likely will not have a lot of mainstream appeal.
I expect an OW PTA of 30 k, and a total of 5 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 7-12 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office, but it's not a bad choice in Ultimate.
Evil Does Not Exist
This should have a solid PTA as well. It is from the director of the Oscar-nominated Drive My Car, and reviews have been similarly strong. That being said, Janus Films has only ever had two films gross over 2 m (one of them being the aforementioned Drive My Car), so long-term prospects are iffy, even though it should start strong.
I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a total under 1 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 4-10 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office, and there may be better options in Ultimate.
Wildcat
This should have an okay opening, but probably won't do much in expansion. Reviews have been poor, but the subject matter, matched with the curiosity factor of Ethan Hawke directing/Maya Hawke starring should lead to a decent PTA.
I expect an OW PTA of 15 k, and a total under 1 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 3-4 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Top 5
The Fall Guy - 28 m
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Re-Release - 10 m
Tarot - 10 m
Challengers - 8 m
Civil War - 5 m
PTA
I Saw The TV Glow - 30 k
Evil Does Not Exist - 20 k
Wildcat - 15 k
The Fall Guy - 7 k
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Re-Release - 4 k
Next Week
Join transformers for a look over Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes, which should start off better than The Fall Guy.